Introduction
As Bitcoin undergoes a recent downtrend, plummeting from its 2023 all-time high of approximately $49,000 to below $41,000 at the time of this analysis, a compelling forecast emerges. Esteemed crypto analyst Kevin Svenson, in a recent YouTube video, predicts a new all-time high for Bitcoin in the months following the 2024 Bitcoin halving. This comprehensive analysis delves into Svenson’s insights, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index, and the potential implications for the crypto market.
Bitcoin’s Anticipated Resurgence
Despite the current price correction and the buzz surrounding Spot Bitcoin ETFs, Svenson highlights the substantial declines in Bitcoin’s value, approaching the critical $40,200 mark. His prediction suggests a new all-time high for BTC around June 2024. To comprehend this forecast, Svenson draws parallels between Bitcoin’s price movements and the recent achievements in the stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index.
Correlation with Stock Market Patterns
Svenson points out a significant correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index during the periods preceding and following Bitcoin halvings. Examining the three previous halving events, Svenson reveals a fascinating pattern: each time the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high, Bitcoin followed suit with its own record high.
After the first Bitcoin halving in November 2012, the S&P 500 index hit its all-time high, and BTC recorded its peak two months later. The second halving in July 2016 saw a similar pattern, with the S&P 500 achieving a record high, and Bitcoin reaching an all-time high about seven-and-a-half months later. The third halving in May 2020 witnessed the S&P 500 index breaking its all-time high in August, followed by BTC hitting a new peak approximately four months later.
Projecting Bitcoin’s Future
Svenson extrapolates from these historical correlations to project Bitcoin’s all-time high after the upcoming halving in April 2024. Utilizing the observed average time difference in the three halving events, he estimates that BTC is poised to achieve a new record high around four-and-a-half months after the S&P 500 index reaches its own pinnacle.
BTC’s Triumph Over Critical Price Levels
In Svenson’s analysis, Bitcoin has successfully rebounded from the critical price level of $40,200, coinciding with the S&P 500 index recording its new all-time high. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $40,832, reflecting a 2.06% decline in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Svenson emphasizes the significance of this rebound, highlighting that failure to overcome this critical support level could have triggered major bearish signals.
Interplay with Stock Market Gains
Svenson acknowledges the positive impact of recent stock market gains on both Bitcoin and altcoins within the crypto market. He suggests that the stock market’s new all-time high not only solidifies Bitcoin’s critical position but also has the potential to positively influence speculator sentiment within the crypto space.
